In 2019, the US trade deficit, our total imports and our goods imports all declined. These are all positive developments for the US economy and especially so because key indicators of the overall US economy, including GDP and personal consumption expenditure, grew at healthy rates last year.
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
Monday, February 3, 2020
We Need a 5G Wireless Technology Made in the USA
You are probably hearing a lot about 5G wireless, which is the next big thing in cellular telephone networks. The coming fifth generation of wireless networks will multiply the speed of cellular reception from around 100 megabits per second to multiple gigabits per second. This new technology will make many amazing new activities possible: things like telemedicine, remote-controlled cars…not to mention new apps that will enable teens to share things in new ways their parents would probably prefer not to know about.
Friday, January 3, 2020
Tariffs Are Working, to the Consternation of the Economics Profession
The New Year dawns on an America where many manufacturing sectors are in a state of aggressive growth. In December, America’s largest steelmaker, Nucor, announced it will add a coil paint line to its Arkansas mill.
Thursday, December 12, 2019
How To Steal an Airplane
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| Chinese JSSD agent Xu Yanjun, now in a Michigan jail awaiting trial. |
The Story of Turbine Panda
In April 2018, a Chinese intelligence agent named Xu Yanjun got off a plane in Brussels, Belgium and headed for St. Catherine Square, a bustling area of shops and quaint cobblestone streets. Xu had a meeting planned with one of his assets, a US-based General Electric engineer who was in Brussels on vacation. The plan was to discuss what confidential aerospace design information the engineer could steal from GE to turn over to Xu.
The meeting was a sting operation. Instead of a friendly drink, Xu was greeted by a team of Belgian police and FBI agents from the US. They clapped him in handcuffs and escorted him to a Belgian jail, He was kept there, incommunicado so he could not converse with his superiors in Nanjing, for six months. In October 2018 he was extradited by Belgium to stand trial in the US on four counts of industrial espionage including theft of trade secrets, paying a GE engineer to pass trade secrets to Chinese officials, and attempting to steal trade secrets by fraud, artifice, and deception.
This investigation exposed an unusually wide-ranging industrial spying conspiracy by China, targeting at least 13 different US and international companies. In this case, China broke down an important industrial project, the C919 passenger jet plane, into all its major components and subsystems, and systematically targeted the western companies producing each one. All those companies had partnerships with Chinese manufacturers, under which they were already sharing their technology and parts. But that didn’t stop Chinese spies, led by Xu, from targeting them for IP theft. Thanks to a comprehensive report by Adam Kozy of US cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike, we have great insight into the thoroughness and audacity of this attack on US and western intellectual property.
Xu is still in a federal prison in Milan, Michigan awaiting trial. He is not just another engineer who decided to betray his company and his country for money or Chinese patriotism. He is a senior operative of the Jiangsu State Security Division (JSSD), a division of China’s feared spy agency, the Ministry of State Security, dedicated to industrial espionage. Xu is likely the most senior MSS agent ever to see the inside of a US prison.
The Crowdstrike report says that Xu, other JSSD agents, and the employees they recruited at western companies used “traditional espionage, cyber intrusions, and cover-ups.” Crowdstrike labeled the operation TURBINE PANDA. Their report says: “TURBINE PANDA conducted cyber intrusions from a period of roughly 2010 to 2015 against several of the companies that make the C919’s various components…the first preparatory activity in January 2010 believed to be associated with TURBINE PANDA targeted Los Angeles-based Capstone Turbine and began just a month after choosing CFM as its engine provider.”
CFM is a partnership of America’s GE Aviation and France’s Safran providing the technology for the engine at the heart of the C919 plane. Figure 1 shows the key subsystem manufacturers involved in partnerships with Chinese manufacturers to produce the C919. They include high-tech aerospace companies from the US, France, Germany, and Britain.
An indictment filed in California on October 25, 2018 and based on charges from a grand jury empaneled in June 2017 names 13 western companies, most of them American, as victims of an IP theft conspiracy managed by two JSSD officers, Zha Rong and Chai Meng. The ten indicted men include a GE engineer, Zhang Zhang-Gui, who went under the codename Leanov, Gu Gen and Tian Xi. The latter two worked for the French manufacturer Safran. According to the indictment, Safran was infiltrated when its employees placed “malware” into the Safran computer network in its Suzhou, China offices. The malware gave the JSSD access to all the files in the Safran network with their confidential information.
All the indicted employees of western companies have Chinese names, indicating that misplaced nationalistic Chinese “patriotism” plays a role in the success of the JSSD in persuading western engineers to betray their employers (and often their citizenship, since many individuals charged with such crimes have become US citizens). Naturally, money plays a role too. Often it is surprisingly small amounts of money. Zhang (aka Leanov) traveled to China and gave a lecture to a group of Chinese aerospace engineers allegedly disclosing confidential GE information for a payment of just $3500. Zhang took time off from GE, allegedly telling his work colleagues he would be attending a family wedding. There was no wedding, just meetings and lectures with Chinese agents and aerospace professionals.
What did COMAC gain from this spying operation? Even with all its western partners, COMAC has had significant difficulties developing and building the C919 with the performance and safety features that match its competitors from Boeing and Airbus. The espionage activities gave a big boost to COMAC’s product development, Crowdstrike concludes, “knocking several years (and potentially billions of dollars) off of its development time.”
In western business dealings, when two companies sign a partnership, it is usually the beginning of a fruitful collaboration in which the two sides treat each other with respect. When a Chinese company signs a partnership with a western company, the TURBINE PANDA case suggests that it moves almost immediately to identify potential traitors within the western partner company and try to steal its partners’ IP so as to get for free what the western partner is probably already willing to sell for compensation. The irony is that the sooner that COMAC gets the C919 up and flying internationally, the more likely it is that this will dent the sales and profits of Boeing and Airbus, negatively impacting suppliers like GE and Safran.
Yet, western companies still come running every time China offers a partnership. According to an August news report, COMAC is now working on the C929, a competitor with the Boeing 747 targeted for flight in 2025. Both GE and Rolls-Royce are talking to COMAC about partnerships.
Private companies cannot resist the lure of the China market, even though it offers short-term gain at the expense of huge long-term loss. That’s why government action is required. The western aerospace industry, like so many western industries, will gain in the long run by doing less business with China today. We must isolate China from our markets until it is ready to respect international intellectual property norms.
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| Figure 1: Diagram of COMAC's C919 plane showing partner companies providing technology for key subsystems. Source: Crowdstrike. |
See also our other features on China’s IP theft:
Friday, November 8, 2019
Steel Tariffs Are Driving US Economic Growth
On October 25th, America’s largest steelmaker Nucor opened a new steel mill in Hickman, Arkansas. The mill will employ about 100 workers at an average salary of $80,000 a year. A jubilant Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson attended the opening and told the crowd: “I am thrilled that Nucor chose Hickman as the site for its new specialty cold mill complex…Nucor’s investment in Mississippi County over the past 30 years or so has made a substantial economic impact to the region.”
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Apple Staying in Texas Due to US Tariff and Industrial Strategy
On Sept. 23rd, Apple announced that its Mac Pro computer will continue to be manufactured in Texas, rather than China, Taiwan, or southeast Asia, as the company was previously planning. The Mac Pro is currently the only Apple product assembled in the United States.
This is good news for Austin, Texas, good news for Apple, and good news for the US technology industry. But most of all, it marks an important evolution in our tariff and industrial policy toward what I hope will be a new, higher level of sophistication.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Tide of Multinationals Leaving China Turns Into a Flood
It took 20 years for China to disrupt global supply chains and build up the world’s largest manufacturing base. In the process they decimated US manufacturing sectors like computers, telecommunications, and furniture.
It seems to be taking just two years for China’s manufacturing dominance to crumble before our eyes.
Thursday, July 25, 2019
Permanent Tariffs on China Could Create Up To 1 Million US Jobs in Five Years
Two months ago we published a study describing the results of our economic modeling of the effects of a permanent, across-the-board 25 percent tariff on all US imports from China. We found that after five years, the tariff would lead to an increase in US GDP of $125 billion and the creation of an additional 721,000 US jobs. The tariff would stimulate the US economy through two channels: first, the relocation of US-bound production from China to other nations would lead to a reduction in the average cost of imports because many alternative production locations, such as those in Southeast Asia, today have lower costs of production than China; and secondly, because a portion of the production in China relocated to the US, would directly stimulate the US economy.
Tuesday, July 2, 2019
We Need An American Alternative to Huawei
President Trump’s decision over the weekend to allow US component and chip companies to sell to Chinese network builder Huawei was a questionable decision. We need independence from Huawei, not reliance on them as either a customer or network provider. Yet the president’s decision was an inevitable result of the structure of the global Internet infrastructure industry. The world does not have enough network providers today. More urgency is needed to fix this situation.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Republican Marco Rubio Says the US Needs To Look Beyond Shareholder Value For Economic Success. He’s Right.
Last month, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) published one of the most enlightening and surprising reports from a member of Congress in a long while. Entitled American Investment in the 21st Century, Rubio’s report took a fresh look at the problems ailing the US economy and concluded that there’s a shortage of investment in US industry caused by the dominance of “shareholder value” philosophy.
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
CPA Briefing Paper: Why Economic Forecasts of the Effects of Trade Action Are Consistently Wrong
Executive Summary
From the adoption of NAFTA in 1994, through the Trump administration’s 2018 tariffs, economic forecasts have consistently failed to predict the impacts of free trade agreements and other trade actions. As this paper documents, economic forecasts have consistently proven wrong regarding economic growth, trade volumes, and employment. We look at four distinct causes of these poor forecasts, including the exclusion of positive effects from reducing trade as well as a tendency toward generalizations that overlook real-world conditions. Finally, we look at how CPA’s research team is attempting to overcome these issues by modifying economic models to incorporate the lessons of recent decades.
Tuesday, May 7, 2019
When Chinese Networks Spy On Their Users
On April 30th, global wireless telecom company Vodafone went public with a statement to Bloomberg News saying that the London-based wireless provider found “hidden backdoors,” i.e. multiple security flaws in the wireless network supplied by Chinese network provider Huawei. The problem first surfaced in 2011 when Vodafone engineers found “backdoors” in Huawei broadband gateway (home router) equipment in their Italian network. Backdoors are software access points which allow the network manager (Huawei in this case), or third parties like hackers or spies, to get into the network and potentially see the private data traffic of millions of users.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
The US is the world leader in 5G; We’re just missing one piece
There is widespread concern in the US, ranging from cable TV shows right up to the White House, that the US is losing the race for 5G wireless networks. The concern is right, but the analysis is wrong. The US is the world leader in 5G networks. We are missing just one piece: the systems integrator. A careful examination of the industry shows how strong our leadership is, and that it would not be hard for the US to provide that one missing piece.
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Huawei’s Employee Bonus Program For Stealing Technology
On January 16th, a grand jury in the US District Court in Seattle, Washington indicted Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei for theft of trade secrets and attempting to corruptly obstruct a civil lawsuit. The indictment contains an extraordinary amount of detail on Huawei’s industrial espionage practices and its theft of intellectual property from US wireless carrier T-Mobile USA. This shocking 28-page document amounts to a how-to guide for those seeking to steal intellectual property from their best customers.
Thursday, December 20, 2018
GM Cutbacks Due to Offshoring, Not Tariffs
General Motors is having a very good year in 2018. That’s right. You read that right, a good year. Maybe even an excellent year. In Q3, its earnings performance knocked it out of the park. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $1.25 and the carmaker delivered $1.87. On the Oct. 31st conference call with investors, CEO Mary Barra (pictured) was bullish on the full-year outturn, forecasting the company’s outcome this way: “We expect full-year EPS [earnings per share] to be at the top of our previously-communicated guidance range with potential for further upside..”
But, if you read the news, you might ask: didn’t GM announce the shutting of five auto plants in November, and the likely layoff of up to 14,000 workers in the US and Canada due to the tariffs? That’s drastic surgery. Isn’t GM hurting?
Thursday, December 13, 2018
Top Five Cases of Huawei IP Theft and Patent Infringement
Last week, Canadian authorities arrested the Chief Financial Officer of Huawei, Sabrina Meng Wanzhou. The US government alleges that she was involved in a plot to circumvent US sanctions on Iran by using a dummy company, secretly owned by Huawei, to sell networking equipment to Iran.
Some of the US and European press have labeled Huawei a Chinese “national hero,” praising the company as one of China’s top technology companies. The reality is that Huawei has been a leading player in stealing western technology by blatantly using it without paying royalties for patents. Huawei also hires western engineers to gain access to their confidential knowledge, and often directs engineers to steal documents from US and other western technology companies.
Tuesday, December 4, 2018
The Tariffs Are Working
Since January, the Trump administration has implemented five major tariff policies, on the solar panel, washing machine, steel, and aluminum industries, as well as the so-called Section 301 tariffs affecting $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, chiefly in intermediate manufactured goods.
And so far, the evidence is that the tariffs are working. Economic growth is up, inflation is under control, many of the tariffed industries are enjoying strong recoveries in output, profits, and employment. And as optimism spreads across manufacturing, other manufacturing sectors are also enjoying better growth than they’ve seen in years.
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Experts Say China Telecom Diverted US Internet Traffic Through China
Three Internet security experts have accused state-owned telecom giant China Telecom of diverting internal US Internet traffic through China. The purpose, apparently, was corporate espionage.
Friday, November 2, 2018
US Manufacturing Resurgence is Broad-Based
Manufacturing employment in the US has now shown year-on-year growth of more than 250,000 employees for six consecutive months, the largest and most sustained manufacturing job growth we’ve seen since 1998. Manufacturing employment may finally be on the path to a real recovery from the severe downturn that began in 2001, when we lost 1.47 million manufacturing jobs in a single year.
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