Last month, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) published one of the most enlightening and surprising reports from a member of Congress in a long while. Entitled American Investment in the 21st Century, Rubio’s report took a fresh look at the problems ailing the US economy and concluded that there’s a shortage of investment in US industry caused by the dominance of “shareholder value” philosophy.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
CPA Briefing Paper: Why Economic Forecasts of the Effects of Trade Action Are Consistently Wrong
Executive Summary
From the adoption of NAFTA in 1994, through the Trump administration’s 2018 tariffs, economic forecasts have consistently failed to predict the impacts of free trade agreements and other trade actions. As this paper documents, economic forecasts have consistently proven wrong regarding economic growth, trade volumes, and employment. We look at four distinct causes of these poor forecasts, including the exclusion of positive effects from reducing trade as well as a tendency toward generalizations that overlook real-world conditions. Finally, we look at how CPA’s research team is attempting to overcome these issues by modifying economic models to incorporate the lessons of recent decades.
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